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| Link Between Real Estate Market, Stock Prices |
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(September 20, 2006) --
Is there a correlation between the real estate slowdown and declining stock prices?
Observers are trying to figure that out and reaching many different conclusions.
Merrill Lynch prepared a chart overlaying the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index with an index of homebuilding activity from the National Association of Home Builders. The chart shows that the S&P goes up one year after the home-building index goes up, and goes down one year after the home-building index goes down.
Tuesday, the National Association of Home Builders reported its monthly sentiment index fell to a 15-year low. That leaves believers in the Merrill Lynch theory certain that stocks aren't far behind.
Another chart from InvesTech Research correlates changes in private residential construction with recessions. Going back to 1968, it shows that with just one exception - in 1995 - every time there has been a downturn in residential construction, a recession has occurred at the same time or shortly after. Because residential construction has shrunk over the past year, followers of this index are worried.
But there are some optimists. Bob Carey, chief investment officer for First Trust Advisors, says to get ready for a bull market, noting that the stock market is 20 percent to 25 percent undervalued at current levels and should reach full valuation by sometime next year.
Carey says the demand for housing is driven by incomes and jobs, and since corporate profits are extremely strong, the outlook for income and job growth is good. "It's hard to imagine Corporate America doing well and somehow people not doing well on the employment side," he says.
Source: BusinessWeek Online, Peter Coy (09/19/2006) |
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